Leicestershire North West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Leicestershire North West: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Andrew Bridgen  (CON)
County/Area:Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:75,361
Turnout:71.0%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,15358.2%
LAB17,86233.4%
LIB3,4206.4%
Green1,0982.1%
CON Majority13,29124.8%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Leicestershire North West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Leicestershire North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Leicestershire North West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Leicestershire North West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Leicestershire North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Leicestershire North WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
North West LeicestershireAppleby1,731Leicestershire North West933292410210001,287
North West LeicestershireAshby Castle2,101Leicestershire North West942291670270001,327
North West LeicestershireAshby Holywell1,995Leicestershire North West8455111120350001,503
North West LeicestershireAshby Ivanhoe1,941Leicestershire North West849505650280001,447
North West LeicestershireAshby Money Hill1,951Leicestershire North West855434700270001,386
North West LeicestershireAshby Willesley1,977Leicestershire North West923487620270001,499
North West LeicestershireAshby Woulds1,866Leicestershire North West904488550270001,474
North West LeicestershireBardon1,724Leicestershire North West8354331870310001,486
North West LeicestershireBlackfordby1,987Leicestershire North West732538440240001,338
North West LeicestershireBroom Leys2,056Leicestershire North West7195151610270001,422
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Castle2,013Leicestershire North West909549760350001,569
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Central1,905Leicestershire North West917318770310001,343
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Park1,236Leicestershire North West47422434016000748
North West LeicestershireCastle Rock1,767Leicestershire North West7174671740300001,388
North West LeicestershireCoalville East2,026Leicestershire North West9523862080330001,579
North West LeicestershireCoalville West1,720Leicestershire North West6616341310310001,457
North West LeicestershireDaleacre Hill1,666Leicestershire North West764428650300001,287
North West LeicestershireEllistown and Battleflat1,906Leicestershire North West842561700300001,503
North West LeicestershireGreenhill1,994Leicestershire North West7087861990360001,729
North West LeicestershireHermitage1,767Leicestershire North West7645091230290001,425
North West LeicestershireHolly Hayes1,986Leicestershire North West813537790280001,457
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St John's1,385Leicestershire North West729242970220001,090
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St Mary's1,901Leicestershire North West7125951050290001,441
North West LeicestershireIbstock East1,866Leicestershire North West717579810270001,404
North West LeicestershireIbstock West1,801Leicestershire North West758537630260001,384
North West LeicestershireKegworth1,709Leicestershire North West790344590630001,256
North West LeicestershireLong Whatton and Diseworth2,017Leicestershire North West1,027311520270001,417
North West LeicestershireMeasham North1,852Leicestershire North West886496570270001,466
North West LeicestershireMeasham South1,829Leicestershire North West764670560260001,516
North West LeicestershireOakthorpe and Donisthorpe1,943Leicestershire North West907511660290001,513
North West LeicestershireRavenstone and Packington1,936Leicestershire North West972395530260001,446
North West LeicestershireSence Valley2,191Leicestershire North West790432520230001,297
North West LeicestershireSnibston North1,673Leicestershire North West6054061290260001,166
North West LeicestershireSnibston South1,705Leicestershire North West6416251270320001,425
North West LeicestershireThornborough1,996Leicestershire North West844508920280001,472
North West LeicestershireThringstone1,884Leicestershire North West727603610260001,417
North West LeicestershireValley2,123Leicestershire North West1,0453611160290001,551
North West LeicestershireWorthington and Breedon2,251Leicestershire North West1,181354540290001,618
 Total71,377 31,15317,8623,42001,09800053,533

The full details of these calculations are given on the Leicestershire North West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Leicestershire North West

The new seat of Leicestershire North West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Leicestershire North West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		Old Seat CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
North West LeicestershireAppleby1,813Leicestershire North West933292410210001,287
North West LeicestershireAshby Castle1,868Leicestershire North West942291670270001,327
North West LeicestershireAshby Holywell2,116Leicestershire North West8455111120350001,503
North West LeicestershireAshby Ivanhoe2,037Leicestershire North West849505650280001,447
North West LeicestershireAshby Money Hill1,951Leicestershire North West855434700270001,386
North West LeicestershireAshby Willesley2,110Leicestershire North West923487620270001,499
North West LeicestershireAshby Woulds2,075Leicestershire North West904488550270001,474
North West LeicestershireBardon2,092Leicestershire North West8354331870310001,486
North West LeicestershireBlackfordby1,884Leicestershire North West732538440240001,338
North West LeicestershireBroom Leys2,001Leicestershire North West7195151610270001,422
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Castle2,210Leicestershire North West909549760350001,569
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Central1,892Leicestershire North West917318770310001,343
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Park1,054Leicestershire North West47422434016000748
North West LeicestershireCastle Rock1,953Leicestershire North West7174671740300001,388
North West LeicestershireCoalville East2,222Leicestershire North West9523862080330001,579
North West LeicestershireCoalville West2,051Leicestershire North West6616341310310001,457
North West LeicestershireDaleacre Hill1,812Leicestershire North West764428650300001,287
North West LeicestershireEllistown and Battleflat2,115Leicestershire North West842561700300001,503
North West LeicestershireGreenhill2,433Leicestershire North West7087861990360001,729
North West LeicestershireHermitage2,008Leicestershire North West7645091230290001,425
North West LeicestershireHolly Hayes2,051Leicestershire North West813537790280001,457
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St John's1,533Leicestershire North West729242970220001,090
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St Mary's2,029Leicestershire North West7125951050290001,441
North West LeicestershireIbstock East1,976Leicestershire North West717579810270001,404
North West LeicestershireIbstock West1,948Leicestershire North West758537630260001,384
North West LeicestershireKegworth1,769Leicestershire North West790344590630001,256
North West LeicestershireLong Whatton and Diseworth1,994Leicestershire North West1,027311520270001,417
North West LeicestershireMeasham North2,065Leicestershire North West886496570270001,466
North West LeicestershireMeasham South2,134Leicestershire North West764670560260001,516
North West LeicestershireOakthorpe and Donisthorpe2,129Leicestershire North West907511660290001,513
North West LeicestershireRavenstone and Packington2,036Leicestershire North West972395530260001,446
North West LeicestershireSence Valley1,826Leicestershire North West790432520230001,297
North West LeicestershireSnibston North1,642Leicestershire North West6054061290260001,166
North West LeicestershireSnibston South2,005Leicestershire North West6416251270320001,425
North West LeicestershireThornborough2,071Leicestershire North West844508920280001,472
North West LeicestershireThringstone1,995Leicestershire North West727603610260001,417
North West LeicestershireValley2,183Leicestershire North West1,0453611160290001,551
North West LeicestershireWorthington and Breedon2,278Leicestershire North West1,181354540290001,618
 Total75,361 31,15317,8623,42001,09800053,533

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Leicestershire North West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (14-Mar-2024 12:19, Py3L, sc12261)